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IX. Reasonable and Prudent Alternative The regulations implementing section 7 of the ESA (50 CFR 402.02) define reasonable and prudent alternatives as alternative actions, identified during formal consultation, that (1) can be implemented in a manner consistent with the intended purpose of the action, (2) can be implemented consistent with the scope of the actionagency's legal authority, (3) are economically and technologically feasible, and (4) would, NMFS believes, avoid the likelihood of jeopardizing the continued existence of listed species and avert the destruction or adverse modification of critical habitat. NMFS has developed a three part alternative to the proposed action. When taken together as an integrated action, the following Reasonable and Prudent Alternative is not likely to jeopardize listed species. Part 2 of the RPA requires the PFMC to develop management measures for 1996 to implement the ocean harvest objective of NMFS' Proposed Recovery Plan for Snake River fall chinook. Part 3 of the RPA requires the PFMC to reduce incidental harvest of winterrun chinook by a minimum of 50% through its 1996 management measures. Part 1 of the RPA requires the PFMC to develop an amendment to the FMP to address the need for weak stock management and the long term recovery needs of listed species. Taken as a whole, NMFS believes the RPA is not likely to jeopardize the continued existence of winter run chinook, Snake river fall chinook and will assist the recovery of other listed species. 1.The Council must adopt an amendment to the FMP by October of 1996 and NMFS must implement the amendment by May of 1997 to include management objectives for species, that are currently listed under the ESA, that are consistent with immediate conservation needs and the long term recovery of listed species. In amending the FMP, NMFS and the Council shall include as a requirement that Council fisheries be managed consistent with NMFS proposed or final recovery plan objectives or interim consultation standards, and with the threshold escapement levels identified for listed salmonid stocks. NMFS shall reiterate objectives from current recovery plans or provide interim consultation standards for each listed species to the Council each year prior to the March Council meeting. NMFS shall also ensure that the guidance provided to the Council is consistent with a conclusion of ‘no jeopardy’ for each species. NMFS encourages the PFMC to develop an amendment capable of addressing the needs of stocks that may be listed in the future. 2.Pending implementation of an amendment, NMFS and the PFMC shall manage the ocean salmon fisheries within the jurisdiction of the PFMC to ensure compliance with the ocean management provisions for Snake River fall chinook that were articulated in the Proposed Recovery Plan and during the 1995 consultation process or alternative provisions that may be developed and incorporated in the final Recovery Plan. Three alternatives have been specified that will be used to evaluate whether ocean salmon fisheries would likely jeopardize Snake River fall chinook. The no-jeopardy alternatives include: 1) implementing a management strategy for PST fisheries that is responsive to an array of natural-origin chinook stocks and is consistent with the Pacific Salmon Commission's stated objective to attain (by 1998) naturally spawning chinook escapement goals based on a rebuilding program that was adopted in 1984; 2) achieving a 30% reduction in the total-adult equivalent exploitation rate of Snake River fall chinook relative to the 1988 - 1993 base period for all ocean fisheries combined; and 3) achieving a 50% reduction in the total adult equivalent exploitation rate of Snake River fall chinook relative to the 1988 - 1993 base period for U.S. ocean fisheries combined. Given the recent information on stock status, NMFS would consider an agreement among the PST parties regarding future fisheries which meets the conservation needs of stocks subject to the rebuilding program to be consistent with the objective of the first alternative (see Section VI.F.). In the event that a PSC agreement is reached, PFMC would be required to meet either the second or third alternative specified above or achieve a 50% reduction relative to the 1988-1993 base period exploitation rate for PFMC Fisheries (see Section VI.G.) Existing provisions for managing ocean salmon fishery impacts to listed fall chinook may be revised during the process of finalizing the Proposed Recovery Plan. If not, the Proposed Plan recommends that harvest provisions for fall chinook be reviewed and revised if appropriate based on available information after 1998. If and when the management standards are revised, the PFMC shall manage their fisheries consistent with provisions of the Final Recovery Plan, or any subsequent revisions as specified in the first Reasonable and Prudent Alternative. 3.Pending completion of the FMP amendment, NMFS must reduce the incidental harvest of winter-run chinook by a minimum of 50% from the estimated current level of 0.50. The available data indicate that the incidental harvest fraction of winter-run chinook was 0.54 for the 1992 brood year, which is consistent with the previous estimates of 0.47 and 0.56 for the 1969 and 1970 brood years. Thus, the current level of incidental harvest of winter-run chinook is estimated to be about a 0.5 harvest fraction. This represents the total harvest impact on winter-run chinook because in-river harvest was eliminated in 1990. NMFS considers a substantial reduction in ocean harvest impacts necessary to increase escapement to levels which will ensure that the two (1993 and 1994) weak year classes of winter-run chinook salmon increase above the threshold escapement level, and that the population exhibits continued growth towards recovery. The benefits of reducing harvest can be evaluated by examining increases in escapement predicted to occur at various levels of harvest reduction. Analysis of the best available data, which islimited (see Section VII.C.), leads NMFS to conclude that escapement could be increased substantially (84%) by eliminating the incidental harvest of winter-run chinook. The available information also suggests that harvest rate reductions ranging from 30-50% below current levels could also result in substantial increases in escapement (19-35%). Considering the biological requirements and current status of the winter-run chinook salmon population, including the genetic risks to the population given the two weak year classes, potential environmental fluctuations, and the life history characteristics of the population, NMFS believes that escapement levels which are increased by at least 35% above current levels should not prohibit or significantly impede the recovery of the population. NMFS believes that increasing escapement levels by at least 35% will substantially contribute both to reducing the risks of extinction and to allowing the recovery of winterrun chinook. NMFS acknowledges that these projections are based on limited data and assumptions, and that the population may grow faster or slower depending on future in-river and ocean survival conditions. However, these projections provide a means to evaluate the relative benefits of decreasing harvest impacts from current levels. With respect to the ocean fisheries, a complete closure of the chinook fisheries in the winter-run chinook range would be the strongest possible measure that could be taken to increase escapement most rapidly above threshold levels, and to allow winter-run chinook the opportunity to further recover to healthy population levels. However, based on the best available data, and given the variance in population growth estimates with different harvest reduction levels, NMFS believes that a 50% harvest reduction will increase escapement sufficiently to allow the two weak winter-run chinook year classes to increase above the threshold escapement level, and also allow the population to grow towards recovery. Achieving this reduction is expected to reduce fishing in certain components of the fishery, but NMFS has concluded this result is still consistent with the basic purposes of the Salmon FMP. At harvest reduction level of less than 50%, where impacts on the salmon fisheries would be less substantial, NMFS is less confident that sufficient population growth will occur, and therefore, believes that incidental harvest would continue to jeopardize the continued existence of winter-run chinook salmon. Therefore, NMFS has concluded that a 50% reduction in the incidental harvest from current levels will reduce harvest impacts to a level that is not likely to jeopardize the continued existence of winter-run chinook salmon. This 50% reduction in ocean fishery impacts on winter-run chinook is expected to decrease the harvest fraction to approximately 0.25 and increase escapement by 35% from current levels. As monitoring of incidental harvest and escapement continues, new information may become available which better defines harvest impacts and itsrelationship to escapement, and allows for additional analyses of needed protection measures. As such information develops, NMFS should further evaluate harvest impacts and consider adjusting harvest constraints. NMFS acknowledges that a direct measure of winter-run chinook ocean harvest impacts does not exist. NMFS should encourage the PFMC to develop management measures which selectively reduce incidental harvest impacts on winter-run chinook relative to other chinook stocks. If, however, such measures have either no demonstrable selective benefit to winter chinook or are unenforceable over large sectors of the fishery, NMFS may decide that the Central Valley ocean exploitation index provides the best and only available tool to measure relative reductions in harvest impacts to winter-run chinook. If the Central Valley ocean exploitation index is chosen as a relative measure of winter-run chinook harvest impacts, an appropriate base period must be determined. A direct calculation of harvest rate based on CWT returns is possible only for the 1992 brood year, for which ocean recoveries would be expected in the 1994 and 1995 fisheries. An average of the Central Valley ocean exploitation index for those two years, 0.76, could be used as a base line from which to make reductions. Alternatively, a base period could be determined from a longer time frame of recent Central Valley ocean exploitation indices. The Salmon Technical Team has adopted a time frame of 1986 to the present for developing their annual Central Valley exploitation index projections. Ocean fishing patterns have been relatively stable during this time and notably different from patterns prior to 1986. This time frame is representative of present fishing conditions and an average of 1986 to 1995 indices, 0.74, could be used as a base line from which to adjust the Central Valley exploitation index to meet winter-run chinook harvest reductions. Although either of the above alternatives are reasonable methods for determining a base period, NMFS believes that the use of the two year period, for which winter chinook CWT data exist, is the more appropriate method to calculate a Central Valley ocean exploitation index base period, should that be necessary. |
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